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CIC Members Exclusive Event "Preventing a North Korea nuclear-tipped ICBM:...

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DLA Piper Boardroom, Suite 2800

Park Place, 666 Burrard Street

Vancouver, BC

Canada

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Discussion featuring Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of IISS–Americas. The danger posed by North Korea has grown by leaps and bounds. Exceeding all expectations, the hermit kingdom now has missiles with an intercontinental range that cast a nuclear shadow over a growing portion of North America. It is not yet clear whether the new system could reach Washington, DC with a nuclear warhead. = What is certain, however, is that the Hwasong-14 missiles that were tested in July can reach Washington State – and therefore British Columbia – whether or not Pyongyang purposely targets Vancouver. Over the years, concerned states have tried nearly every policy option to retard North Korea’s growing challenges. The one option not yet put in play – military strikes – now appears to be on the table. President Trump’s uncoordinated threats of “fire and fury” vied with North Korean state media in terms of bluster. Yet his words reflected an increasingly common view in the US about the need to consider a preventive strike against a North Korean ICBM before it leaves the launch pad, even though this might well prompt Pyongyang to respond against military and civilian targets in South Korea and Japan. The discussion about preventive strikes (sometimes misleadingly called “pre-emptive”), along with Trump’s threats, has surely heightened the Kim regime’s sense of paranoia and could cause Pyongyang to start a war based on misperceptions about US intentions. We need to consider less bad options. Mark Fitzpatrick has focused on the North Korea threat for nearly 40 years, first as a US diplomat with portfolios covering East Asia and nuclear proliferation, and now as a leading scholar at the world-renowned International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Since December 2015, he has directed the Institute’s Washington DC-based office, representing the IISS throughout North and South America. Mark also heads the IISS Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy Programme, a position he has held since late 2005. Among hundreds of other publications, he is the author of Asia’s Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (February 2016) and the editor of an IISS strategic dossier on North Korean Security Challenges. Before joining the IISS, he was a US diplomat for 26 years, serving as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-Proliferation (acting), in Vienna as liaison to the International Atomic Energy Agency, in Washington as North Korea desk officer, and to the US missions in Seoul and Tokyo, among other postings. Few experts are better placed to discuss the North Korea problem from both a technical background and from the perspective of the various actors. The IISS is a world-leading authority on global security, political risk and military conflict. Founded in the UK in 1958 with a focus on nuclear deterrence and arms control, it today is also renowned for The Military Balance, its annual assessment of countries' armed forces, and for its high-powered security summits, including the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue.

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DLA Piper Boardroom, Suite 2800

Park Place, 666 Burrard Street

Vancouver, BC

Canada

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