$149 – $199

Quantifying Cost Estimate Risks - Nov 24, Friday, CALGARY, AB

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Bow Valley Square

205 5 Avenue SW

Calgary, AB T2P 3G6


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Quantifying Cost Estimate Risks

Building Simulation Model Using @RISK

Group Discount Available: Save $50 per person ! Minimum 2 tickets purchase required.

Please send email to info@i-pci.com for other payment options.


John Zhao, Director of Riskcore Ltd., is a senior consultant with 30 years experience in infrastructure, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, commercial construction, and refining industries; he is a Subject Matter Expert in Quantitative Risk Analysis, having facilitated over 100 risk workshops and conducted Quantitative Risk Analysis sessions totalling over $60 Billion.

Riskcore is a project risk management (PRM) consulting firm specializing in training, consulting and implementation of project risk management process, system and methodology, including

- facilitating qualitative risk workshops for assessment, responses and residual risk handling;

- soliciting inputs and modelling quantitative cost estimate risks for contingencies & escalation;

- providing independent, unbiased and risk-based project readiness reviews at any given gate;

RISCOR is a Monte Carlo based simulation model developed in 2005 by Riskcore Ltd. for Class 3 and Class 2 cost estimate contingencies and escalation; the model skilfully integrates quantified systemic risks with quantitative specific risks to derive an aggregated contingency for both cost and schedule delays at chosen confidence level.

John's Publications:

– 2008 Canadian Institute EPC Project Risk Management conference in Calgary titled “Risks in EPC World”

– 2008 Palisade @RISK Energy Forum in Calgary titled “The Cost of Risk – Quantification”

– 2010 Palisade @RISK conference in London England titled “Put More Science in Cost Risk Analysis”

– 2011 SPE Technical Conference in Denver USA titled “Understanding and Handling Residual Risks”

– 2013 Canadian institute EPCM conference in Calgary titled “what does an owner company want from EPC firms?”–

– 2012 Canadian institute EPCM conference in Calgary titled “Effective Contracting Strategy”

– 2014 Canadian institute EPCM conference in Calgary titled “Managing Risks of Overseas Engineering and Fabrication”

– 2015 Palisade @RISK Conference in Calgary titled “Quantifying Management Reserves using Binomial Distribution”

Course Description:

This one-day course provides an unique training opportunity for professionals to learn the basic skills on Quantitative Risk Analysis using Palisade @RISK software. Assuming participants already have the basic concepts of risk management, this course will dive into the method on how to build a simple model to simulate risk impacts on cost estimates and generate contingency. In this one-day class John will teach you model building techniques and also share with the class his rich examples of past risk analyses, as well as peeking into the Riscor Model structure.

Learning Outcomes:

The objectives of Quantitative Risk Analysis: contingency or schedule delay or both

Ingredients as the Inputs to QRA: systemic risk identification and semi-quantification

Risk Workshop Facilitation: estimate variables, the process, techniques and outcomes

Simulation Model Building Technique: how to model inherent cost estimate risks

Course Outline:

Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis Process, why do we quantify risks?

Qualitative Risk Assessment and Quantitative Risk Analysis, why are they different?

Inherent Risks to Project Cost Estimates, why are all base estimates “wrong”?

The Inputs to Risk Quantification, why is risk workshop required for QRA process?

Risk Simulation Model Building, who should be the risk modeler / risk analyst?

Correlation and Running Simulation, how important is the correlation matrix in QRA?

Generating Contingency with Schedule delay, how is delay quantified into contingency?

Contingency & Risk Reserve, what are the differences between contingency and reserve?


Participants must have some project risk management knowledge and practical experiences

Prior to attending the class, participants must have downloaded @RISK trial version (valid for 7 days) in their laptop and bring to the class

Previous capital project and cost estimate and controls experience are preferred but not necessary

Participants must be skillful in using Excel Spreadsheet formulae as they are widely used here


Who should attend this course?

Project Sponsors, Sr. Managers, Project Managers, Project Engineers, Estimators, Project Controls, and all professionals dealing with risks at certain point of their career.

What can I bring into the event?

All electrical course material will be provided in class. Participants must have downloaded @RISK trial version (valid for 7 days) in their laptop and bring to the class.

How can I contact the organizer with any questions?

Send email to info@i-PCI.com

Do I have to bring my printed ticket to the event?

Yes, please.

Is my registration fee or ticket transferrable?

Yes, but please contact info@i-PCI.com for transferring.

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Date and Time


Bow Valley Square

205 5 Avenue SW

Calgary, AB T2P 3G6


View Map

Refund Policy

Refunds up to 7 days before event

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