Travel Demand Forecasts: Lessons from the International Toll Road Sector
Rob Bain will summarise his research findings on how predictive bias and error result in erroneous travel demand forecasts. He will talk about his involvement in big-ticket litigations in Australia and the US, highlighting lessons for practitioners, and suggest ways in which professional practice can be adapted to better understand and gauge demand forecasting risk.
Rob Bain is a London-based chartered civil engineer. He worked as a travel demand forecaster for many years before joining the transportation team at Standard & Poor’s in 2002. Today he runs a specialist ‘boutique’ consultancy reviewing demand and revenue forecasts for institutional investors and infrastructure funds. Most of his work comes from North America, Latin America and Australasia.
Rob is retained as a visiting research fellow at the University of Leeds (UK) where, earlier, he completed his PhD on investor-financed infrastructure projects. He has published widely on travel demand forecasting and predictive performance – and is regularly retained by global law firms as an expert witness in forecasting-related lawsuits.