LOCATION: Vancouver Island University, Arts and Sciences Building 355, Room 203

ABSTRACT: Climate change due to human causes is altering the balance of water, where it is found and how it moves. This talk will show results from a distributed monthly water balance model that has been applied to several watersheds on Vancouver Island. The calibrated model can explain how water currently flows through watersheds in response to the present climatic conditions, both in cases where precipitation is in the form of rain and also where there is significant snow. The model has also been run with future climate scenarios to predict how climate change could impact the water balance towards the end of this century, in particular with less snow, which affects how water will need to be managed.

Alan Gilchrist is a Professor in the Department of Geography at VIU. He has a Ph.D. in Earth Science from the University of Liverpool in the UK and is a Professional Geoscientist registered with Engineers and Geoscientists BC. He has a long‐standing interest in studying water, both as an agent of erosion and as a precious resource that needs careful management. He uses numerical models in his research to help understand complex systems and provide a quantitative framework to help with decision making.